In October, the Three Brotherhood Alliance – a partnership of three armed ethnic groups in the north – launched an offensive campaign against the military junta that lead the coup in February 2021 (and which, to varying degrees, has been the dominant force in the country since taking power through a coup in 1962). The Three Brotherhood Alliance has had a series of significant victories against the junta that, critically, severed supply lines to China. This cut off not only the import of supplies but also cut off high value exports that were dodging sanctions, such as rare earth minerals, reducing the junta’s revenue. Additionally, the Three Brotherhood Alliance ceded towns that they had captured to the neutral Wa State. This effectively prevents the junta from retaking the towns since that would push Wa, with its strong military, into the conflict.

These loses of soldiers, equipment, and territory have been the most significant defeats that the junta has faced since the February 2021 coup took place. Morale among junta foot soldiers – many of whom wished for peace to continue prior to the coup – was already low and the string of defeats has pushed it lower. There are rumors of delayed payment for government officials and soldiers, further contributing to the morale crisis. In May 2023, the United States Institute of Peace estimated that the junta had lost 21,000 troops to casualties, desertion and defection in the two years since the February 2021 coup and estimated that the junta only had 70,000 combat troops remaining. This was before the Three Brotherhood Alliance offensive launched in October 2023. This does not mean that the junta is on the verge of defeat – the victories of the Three Brotherhood Alliance are regional – but they do mean that the junta is losing control and becoming desperate.

In response, the junta announced that they would begin enforcing a mandatory conscription law after Songkran in April. Their stated goal is to draft 5,000 new soldiers into the military every month. All men ages 18 to 35 and women ages 18 to 27 are subject to the draft. The regional news is full of reports of young adults standing in lines stretching blocks around the Thai embassy, desperately hoping to secure a visa and leave the country before the draft goes into effect.

Our partners have been resisting the call to violence since the coup – despite pressure from neighbors to take up arms against the junta – and have been preaching peace as the only viable path forward for their society. Now they, their families, and their communities are at risk of being drafted to fight on the other side of the conflict. In response… They have asked us for resources on conscientious objection. We are once again humbled by their bravery and conviction, that even now they plan to stand up and say no to war despite the extreme personal risks. Many of those who are eligible for conscription are choosing to flee or to join the resistance. The decision to stay and say no is… Courageous doesn’t seem like a strong enough word.

I have told you all this so that you may have peace in me. Here on earth you will have many trials and sorrows. But take heart, because I have overcome the world.

John 16:33, NLT

From World War 2 to the American War in Vietnam, Mennonite Central Committee was defined by conscientious objection especially through the PAX program. That focus has faded since the military draft ended in North America. MCC does support conscientious objection programs in South Korea, Colombia, and Israel. Myanmar is a very different context in this regard due to its weak rule of law, brutal oppression of civil disobedience, and repeated killing of peaceful protestors. Yet our partners have still chosen to take stand and personally say no to war, despite the risks. In doing so they follow the examples of martyrs like Helene Gotthold, Joseph Müller, and Franz Jägerstätter who were executed by Nazi Germany for their support of conscientious objection.